December 19, 2024

Star wars

Hi there, 

Here is this week's Hot or Not.

Hot: Satellites

The EU is putting $11.1B toward a satellite constellation that aims to compete with SpaceX’s Starlink.

That’s no small goal: Starlink, which provides high-speed internet, was responsible for 73% of the objects launched into space last year.

We dig into the implications of the growing space race in our 2025 Tech Trends report.

Lukewarm: Exit valuations

Across VC, exit valuations on a per employee basis have deflated. 

(Divide M&A exit valuation by employee headcount at the time of the acquisition.) 

After peaking in 2021 at $1.7M, we’re down to $1.3M in 2024. 

But some sectors are hotter than others. For example, cybersecurity’s median M&A exit price per employee sits at $2.3M since 2023.

See the data here.

Hot: Small modular reactors

Data center operators (including Microsoft, Google, and Amazon) are turning to nuclear power to keep up with AI’s energy consumption.

That’s creating an opening for small modular reactors (SMRs): scalable, factory-produced reactors that are expected to be commercialized in the next decade. 

This week, Oklo (backed by Sam Altman) entered into a non-binding agreement with data center operator Switch to build SMRs capable of generating up to 12 gigawatts. 

That’s enough to power every household in the state of New York.

Explore how SMRs and other energy solutions are shaping the future of data centers in this report.

Not: IPO appetite

Databricks just raised a massive $10B round, but the company is in no rush to IPO.

CEO Ali Ghodsi commented that it would be “dumb” to IPO this year.

But Ghodsi indicated that the company still intends to go public eventually, posing 2025 and 2026 as options. 

This reflects a broader trend of startups holding off on IPOs — using methods like tender offers to let early employees/investors cash out instead.

Databricks’ “save it for later” mentality is reflected in its CB Insights IPO probability score.

It still has a 28% chance of IPO’ing in the next 2 years, placing it in the top 9% of unicorns we track.

CBI customers: discover IPO (and M&A) probabilities for all unicorn companies using this advanced search.

The +1

Pie panic. Now, this is depressing.

I love you.

Anand

@asanwal 

Co-Founder & Exec Chair

P.S. What tech trends should you be watching as we head into 2025? From caregiving humanoids to spatial computing, find out what should be on your radar in this briefing.

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