September 4, 2025

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Hi there,

Here is this week's Hot or Not.

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Hot: OpenAI M&A

On Tuesday, OpenAI announced it would buy product development platform Statsig for $1.1B in an all-stock deal. 

Here are all of the LLM developer’s acquisitions to date: 

• Statsig (9/2/2025) — product experimentation (for $1.1B)
• Crossing Minds (6/27/2025) — AI recommendation (acqui-hire) 
• io (5/21/2025) — AI devices (for $6.5B)
• Context.ai (4/15/2025) — AI evaluation (acqui-hire)
• Multi (6/24/2024) — remote team collaboration (acqui-hire)   
• Rockset (6/21/2024) — data retrieval
• Global Illumination (8/16/2023) — AI design studio

As part of the Statsig acquisition, CEO Vijaye Raji will join OpenAI as CTO of Applications, reporting to Fidji Simo (former Instacart CEO). 

The deal highlights OpenAI’s increasing focus on consumer and B2B applications. We previously mapped this broader investment strategy across OpenAI’s portfolio here. 

Not: Vibe coding costs

What started as a gold rush in AI-powered coding may be turning into a money pit.

Companies that hit $100M+ ARR in months, like Anysphere (maker of Cursor) and Lovable, now face LLM inference costs growing up to 20x, forcing rate limits and price hikes. 

Some vendors are shifting to pass‑through and usage‑based pricing to align revenue with compute cost. 

But buyers tell us that token-metered pricing is difficult to budget, and expectations around costs for these tools are already set.

We expect this margin pressure will put more reverse acqui-hires (hiring founders and licensing the tech) on the table (à la Windsurf) as founders seek exits. 

Dive into our analysis of the coding AI market and what other AI agent companies (and their backers) can learn here. 

Hot: Crypto IPOs

On Tuesday, two crypto companies launched IPO roadshows: Figure (blockchain-focused lender) and Gemini (crypto exchange). 

They follow blockchain companies Bullish and Circle, which went public earlier this summer. 

Who’s next? Review 25+ blockchain companies with above-average probability of going public in the next 2 years here. 

Quickly screen companies with IPO and M&A probability that best serve your strategies. Learn more about CB Insights Exit Probability here. 

Not: Trading discounts

Secondaries ​are getting pricier​ as investor demand heats up.  

Private companies are trading at less of a discount than in earlier quarters, based on EquityZen data. 

Average discounts have compressed to just 13% below last-round valuations — the lowest level observed in the last 2+ years.

Get more CB Insights analysis on maturing secondary markets here.

The +1

Source: NCHstats

Should've been a table. Deciphering this graph reduces life expectancy.

I love you.

Anand

@asanwal 

Co-Founder & Exec Chair

P.S. We mapped 230+ companies developing drone tech. CBI customers can get it here.

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